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Today’s rally in the EUR/USD has hit a roadblock after America’s ADP Non-Farm Employment
Change number came in well below analyst expectations. Today’s release couples with yesterday’s disappointing CB Consumer Confidence release. Therefore, the U.S. continues to send negatively mixed signals, hampering the global economic outlook.

In contrast to weak U.S. data, Germany’s Unemployment Change number came in below analyst expectations, reading negative for the third straight month. Hence, Germany’s employment market is firming up more quickly than America’s. However, last week’s wave of negative EU PMI data from Germany dampens our future outlook for German unemployment. Regardless of the future outlook, today’s positive employment data from Germany is helping weather negative U.S. data, limiting present selling pressure. Unfortunately for bulls, we’re not sure how lasting this strength will last.

ECB President Trichet voiced his preference for a stronger Dollar earlier this week. Trichet’s statement is juxtaposed to the ECB’s comparatively hawkish monetary stance throughout the year. Hence, it seems both the EU and Britain may now favor a stronger Dollar.

We believe both central banks are realizing that if they don’t support the Dollar, a new monetary union will take shape with the East pulling power from the West. However, it remains to be seen whether Trichet’s public contemplation will result in concrete action. Trichet’s surprising support of the Dollar is undoubtedly creating a drag on the EUR/USD right now which could accelerate should U.S. equities experience a selloff.

Meanwhile, the EUR/USD still faces several downtrend lines with limited EU economic data on tap this week. Therefore, there seems to be little ammo to turn the tide and continued near-term weakness could be in order. The EUR/USD’s dip below our 1st tier uptrend line was a risky move since it runs through 9/8 levels. Although the currency pair climbed back above our 1st tier, a more definitive retracement could send the currency pair tumbling below the psychological 1.45 level.

Hence, investors should keep a close eye on the EUR/USD’s interaction with our 1st tier uptrend line. Since EU econ data will be light, the EUR/USD’s near-term performance will likely rely on the S&P’s ability to stay above our 1st tier uptrend line (see S&P commentary) and the 1050 level. Continual strength in the S&P would likely help keep the EUR/USD’s head above water and 1.45.

However, our outlook on the EUR/USD is becoming increasingly negative by the day. As for the topside, the EUR/USD faces multiple downtrend lines, 9/28 highs, and 9/17 highs. Our 3rd tier downtrend line is the key barometer for the EUR/USD’s uptrend since it runs through September 23rd highs.

Present Price: 1.4618
Resistances: 1.4634, 1.4656, 1.4677, 1.4703, 1.4724
Supports: 1.4608, 1.4580, 1.4563, 1.4541, 1.4519, 1.4501
Psychological: 1.45

Analysis by FastBrokers

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FXstreet.com (Córdoba) – The Swiss Franc rose against the Dollar during the American session. USD/CHF jumped before the opening bell to 1.0450, reaching the highest since August 10th. Form there the pair pulled back more than a hundred pips to 1.0340. In the last hours USD/CHF moved inside a range between 1.0345 and 1.0375. Current price at 1.0359/63 is the same the pair had at the beginning of the day. The Swiss Franc was able during the American session to recover previous losses.

The Swissy also recovered part of previous losses against European currencies but still remains in the negative side for the day. EUR/CHF trades at 1.5160, almost 80 below intra-day high. GBP/CHF jumped to 1.6730 but failed to hold and pulled back to 1.6550.

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FXstreet.com (Córdoba) – Wall Street fell to hold in the positive side and finished with losses on the last day of the quarter. The Dow Jones fell 0.31% and the Nasdaq lost 0.08%. Crude oil soared and gold ended above $1,000 a/oz. Dollar lost ground during the American session. Despite today’s losses, markets in the U.S. ended the month in positive and for the quarter posted huge gains.

After the opening bell at Wall Street the Dollar rose across the board. But as the American session went on Greenback pulled back, losing gains. EUR/USD failed to hold below 1.4600 and currently is back above 1.4635, consolidating daily gains. GBP/USD moved away from intra-day high and now is being traded below 1.6000. The Swiss Franc moved in ranges most of the session after falling sharply during the European session across the board. USD/JPY continues to move sideways between 89.75 and 89.40.

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FXstreet.com (Córdoba) – Crude oil soared today’s sending the Canadian dollar higher. USD/CAD tumbled from 1.0840 to 1.0669, posting a one-week low. The pair is holding under 1.0700 and is 1.45% below today’s opening price. On the downside, support lies at 1.0660 (Sep 22 low) and below at 1.0600, only a few pips above year lows.

Crude oil is jumped more than 5.50% and ended above $70 a barrel. The commodity had the biggest daily increase in more than a month.

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FXstreet.com (Córdoba) – Greenback is rising across the board benefited by a downside rally in stocks as we move to the last hour of the third quarter. EUR/USD failed to hold above 1.4635 and fell to 1.4618. The pair is still up for the present session and for the day as it trades 0.25% above today’s opening price. The next support lies at 1.4610 and below at 1.4580.

According to the ecPulse.com analysis team: “The euro-dollar pair is narrow trading around a resistance of 1.4664 and a support at 1.4615 as mixed signs are detected throughout the four-hour and one-hour momentum indicators, having the Union currency trading at 1.4646 recorded a high of 1.4673 and a low of 1.4574.”

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FXstreet.com (Córdoba) – Wall Street recovered from early losses. Stocks plunged after the release of the Chicago PMI that showed a surprise decline in September. But later, markets recovered and actually turned positive for a moment. The Dow Jones is down 0.20% at 9720; the index bottomed earlier at 9609. European markets finished in red, after a last hour rally failed to take stocks to the positive side.

Greenback remains lower for the American session and is moving in ranges across the board. EUR/USD is holding above 1.4635 but the pair failed to break above 1.4665. GBP/USD is moving around the 1.6000 area after recovering from intra-day low 1.5940. USD/JPY holds inside a big range, with support at 89.35 and resistance at 89.75.

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FXstreet.com (Córdoba) – EUR/USD is consolidating gains during the American session. After the opening bell at Wall Street the pair bottomed at 1.4575 (intra-day low) and from there started to rise. The pair peaked during the present session at 1.4663, a few pips below intra-day high that lies at 1.4675. Greenback has been steady across the board in the last hour and the pair is building a support zone at 1.4635. Currently it trades at 1.4644/48 or 0.40% above the opening price.

The Euro has pulled back sharply against the Swiss Franc. Earlier EUR/CHF jumped to 1.5235, posting a one-month high. But the pair failed to hold above 1.5200 and pulled back to 1.5155. Despite moving away from intra-day high the pair is still holding big gains for the day and it trades 0.40% above today’s opening price. EUR/CHF is posting the biggest daily gain since last June.

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FXstreet.com (Córdoba) – Cable rebounded at 1.5940, intra-day low and rose to 1.6020, session high. From there GBP/USD started to pull back and now is being traded at the 1.6000 zone, if the pair fails to hold the pair could regain the downside.

Earlier in the day, Pound rose to 1.6126, posting the highest price in four days. The pair is still up, 0.28% above today’s opening price but is far from intra-day high.

Against the Euro, Cable is falling again. EUR/GBP rebounded at 0.9080 and from there rose back on top 0.9100. Currently the pair is testing levels above the resistance at 0.9150 and is 0.18% above today’s opening price.

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FXstreet.com (Córdoba) – Dollar is back at the same levels it had at the beginning of the American session against the Yen. USD/JPY rebounded at 89.40 and rose to 89.75. The pair continues to move sideways in a range with support at 89.35 and resistance at 89.80. Currently trades at 89.68/71 which is 0.50% below today’s opening price. On the downside, support below 89.35 lies at 89.15 and below at 88.75. Resistance on the upside is located at 90.40 and above at 90.85.

The pair tumbled during the Asian session falling from 90.40 to 89.35, intra-day low.

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FXstreet.com (Barcelona) – The Euro’s decline against the Dollar from intra-day high at 1.4674 has found support at 1.4575 and EUR/USD has begun to rise back above 1.4650 level. Currently the pair is trading around 0.50% above today’s opening price action at 1.4585 to the actual 1.4650/60.

According to the FastBrokers Research Team, today’s rally in the EUR/USD has hit a roadblock after America’s ADP Non-Farm Employment: “Meanwhile, the EUR/USD still faces several downtrend lines with limited EU economic data on tap this week. Therefore, there seems to be little ammo to turn the tide and continued near-term weakness could be in order. The EUR/USD’s dip below our 1st tier uptrend line was a risky move since it runs through 9/8 levels. Although the currency pair climbed back above our 1st tier, a more definitive retracement could send the currency pair tumbling below the psychological 1.45 level.”

Valeria Bednarik, FXstreet.com collaborator, comments: “Daily chart in Euro, is showing quite a zone at the 1.4600 level, where we have both, the 38.2% retracement of the last up leg, and the 20 SMA that holds a bullish slope. However, indicators had turned to the downside, with momentum about to cut the 100 line, and RSI close to cut the 50 level, in not the best angle to suggest some downside continuation. Still, that 1.4600 zone that’s capping the downside is the first stone pair has in a probable way down; daily close under that level, will put the pair under pressure, with 1.4515 not so strong support ahead of more important 1.4440 area; that zone will be key as under such level, chances of stronger falls growth. To the upside, 1.4680 is the first level to watch, followed by 1.4720 area, as regained of that zone will suggest current movements are just downside corrections, and trigger more upside rally for the days to come.”

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